Slovenia vs Italy Prediction and Betting Tips – EuroBasket 2025

This article provides a preview of the Slovenia vs Italy EuroBasket 2025 Round of 16 matchup, including our top value betting prediction. The game tips off on Sunday, 7 September 2025, at 17:30 CET, with Italy entering as the favorite but Slovenia carrying strong offensive potential thanks to Luka Doncic.

🏀 Prediction: Slovenia +4.5 Handicap @1.8

Italy completed the group stage with a 4-1 record, securing wins over Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Spain, and Cyprus. Their only loss came to Greece, but their narrow victory over Spain highlighted the team’s ability to stay composed in tight situations.

Simone Fontecchio impressed with a 39-point explosion against Bosnia and Herzegovina, but outside of that, Italy has struggled to maintain consistent scoring. Nicolo Melli, Marco Spissu, and Darius Thompson are capable of hitting key shots, while Saliou Niang, Mouhamet Diouf, and Alessandro Pajola anchor the defense.

Slovenia, despite starting with losses to Poland and France, showed remarkable offensive firepower throughout the group stage. Luka Doncic remains nearly unstoppable in 1-on-1 situations, while Aleksej Nikolic, Edo Muric, Gregor Hrovat, and Klemen Prepelic provide consistent perimeter shooting. Italy’s defense may struggle to contain Doncic, making Slovenia a team that can stay close even if they don’t lead.

While Italy appears stronger on paper, Slovenia leads the head-to-head 4-1 and has the firepower to keep this game competitive. Taking Slovenia to cover the +4.5 spread offers good value in what could be a close knockout game. For a full overview of the EuroBasket playoff teams and main contenders, check out our piece: Who’s Going to Win EuroBasket?

To make bets on the Eurobasket 2025 visit best betting websites.

❗This prediction is for guidance only. We are not responsible for your bets.