Prediction Olympiacos vs Fenerbahce EuroLeague Semi-Final – May 22

Olympiacos and Fenerbahce meet in one of the most anticipated semifinals in recent Euroleague memory. The regular season winners host the defending champions on Friday May 22 in Athens, with a place in Sunday’s Euroleague Final on the line.

Olympiacos swept their way to the Final Four in historic fashion while Fenerbahce survived a dramatic overtime thriller to get here. Between 8,000 and 10,000 Olympiacos supporters are expected inside the arena compared to around 2,500 for Fenerbahçe, making this as close to a home game as a neutral court can get.

🏀 Olympiacos vs Fenerbahçe EuroLeague Semi-Final Prediction: Under 163.5 @1.72

Olympiacos did not just reach the Final Four, they bulldozed their way there. Their playoff series against Monaco became the most one-sided in Euroleague history, sweeping 3-0 with a combined winning margin of 74 points, smashing the previous record of 51 set by Barcelona in 2014.

Their offensive numbers tell the full story: Olympiacos finished first in the entire Euroleague in offensive rating, average points at 90.7, two-point shooting percentage at 59.7% and assists at 21.6 per game.

They also led the league in getting to the free throw line while keeping opponents off it, with opponents averaging just 15.8 free throw attempts per game against them, the lowest figure in the competition.

Fenerbahce know how to win when it matters and their Game 5 against Zalgiris proved it. Trailing by two with 32 seconds left in regulation, Wade Baldwin IV fought through complete physical exhaustion to tie the game, then Talen Horton-Tucker took over in overtime with 7 points to close out a 94-90 win.

Baldwin finished with 14 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists while Horton-Tucker and Khem Birch both scored 21 points on a night that pushed Fenerbahçe to their absolute limit.

Sarunas Jasikevicius now makes his seventh Final Four as a head coach, and his preparation levels are famously intense. Even Fenerbahce’s own wing Tarik Biberovic admitted it openly before the semifinal, calling Olympiacos the highest quality team in Europe over the last five or six years.

Fenerbahçe boast the best defense in the entire Euroleague this season, holding opponents to just 80.6 points per game, ranked first in the competition, while opponents shoot a league-worst 31.8% from three against them.

Olympiacos averaged 90.7 points per game during the regular season but that number was built against a full schedule of opponents, and Fenerbahce’s defensive system is a different challenge to anything they faced against Monaco.

The two regular season meetings between these sides produced scores of 88-80 and 104-87, averaging out at 179.5 combined points, but the playoff setting and the physical toll of a Final Four semifinal typically drags scoring down compared to the regular season.

Fenerbahce rank last in the Euroleague in assists at 16.2 per game and attempt very few shots inside the arc, meaning they lean heavily on perimeter shooting to generate offense rather than high-percentage looks at the rim.

Both teams arrive with a week of preparation and a defensive-minded coaching approach, and Jasikevicius in particular is known for tightening his system further in elimination games. A scrappy, physical and tactical semifinal between two of the best defensive teams in the competition points straight to the under, and 1.72 is a fair price for it.

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