Olympiacos vs Monaco EuroLeague Playoffs Prediction – April 28

Olympiacos finished the Euroleague regular season in first place for the second year in a row, posting a 26-12 record and entering the playoffs as the clear favorites to lift the trophy in Athens in May. Monaco, on the other hand, spent months dealing with financial chaos, a coaching change, and unpaid players, yet still managed to sneak into the playoffs through the play-in by beating Barcelona.

These two teams have built one of the most compelling rivalries in recent Euroleague history. They met in the 2022 playoffs, where Olympiacos survived a five-game war in an electric atmosphere to advance. In 2023, Monaco collapsed in the third quarter, being outscored 27 to 2, and Olympiacos sent them home with a 76 to 62 win on the way to the final. Last year the roles reversed, with Monaco eliminating Olympiacos in the semifinals 78 to 68. Now they meet for the fourth time in the postseason, and nothing about this series is going to be easy for neither team.

🏀 Olympiacos vs Monaco EuroLeague Playoffs Prediction: Under 173.5 Points @1.73

Olympiacos are the most efficient offensive team in the entire Euroleague, posting the best offensive rating in the competition and averaging 90.3 points per game, second overall. They get to the free-throw line more than anyone else, averaging 23.9 attempts per game, first in the league, and they allow opponents just 15.9 free-throw attempts per game, also first in the competition.

That free-throw differential alone gives them a massive points edge in most games. They also lead the Euroleague in assists at 21.6 per game and in assist percentage at 29.4%, this is a team with great Bartzokas system that moves the ball, creates open looks, and converts them at an elite rate.

Coach Georgios Bartzokas has built one of the deepest rosters in European basketball. Sasha Vezenkov became the MVP of regular season, Nikola Milutinov made the All-Euroleague First Team, and Tyler Dorsey made the Second Team.

Thomas Walkup is one of the best defensive point guards in the competition, and he has been consistently underrated for the quality he brings on both ends of the floor. At center, Bartzokas has four quality options including Milutinov, Tyrique Jones, Donta Hall, and Moustapha Fall, who returned after ten months out injured. Despite having the championship caliber team, Olympiacos did not manage to lift the trophy for years and this year might be the last chance for Bartzokas to prove himself.

Monaco’s season has been one of the most dramatic stories in European basketball. They entered as title favorites after reaching last year’s final, then financial problems hit in January, players went unpaid for months, and head coach Vassilis Spanoulis resigned.

Assistant Manuchar Markoishvili took over, and somehow Monaco won six of their last eight regular season games to finish eighth and force their way into the playoffs. The financial issues were resolved in early March with help from the Principality, but the future of the club beyond this season remains deeply uncertain. Markoishvili himself described this run as something of a last dance.

Despite everything, Monaco is in good form and playing with real energy. Mike James has been outstanding, playing at the highest level in both the play-in loss to Panathinaikos and the win over Barcelona, and he stated he is going to leave Monaco after this season. So can Monaco make a great playoff run and get into final 4 in their last dance with James?

The head-to-head record is impossible to ignore: Monaco have won four consecutive games against Olympiacos and lead 7-3 over their last ten meetings. Their road defense contests the three-point line much better than at home, which could slow down some of Olympiacos’s perimeter shooters. Nikola Mirotic is questionable and unlikely to play, which removes an important offensive weapon from their rotation.

There are several strong reasons to back the under in this game. Olympiacos holds opponents to just 15.9 free-throw attempts per game, the best rate in the league, and their home defense is among the top units in the competition. Monaco on the road defends the three-point line much more aggressively than at home, which directly limits the kind of perimeter shooting that Olympiacos relies on from Vezenkov and Dorsey.

Second, playoff basketball in the Euroleague is slower and more physical than regular season basketball. Possessions become harder to create, offenses tighten up, and teams protect leads more carefully. Olympiacos averages 73.7 possessions per game, only tenth in the league, meaning this is not a fast-paced team to begin with. With both teams playing at below-average pace, the total possession count in a playoff game is likely to drop further.

Third, Monaco’s road offensive rating falls to 115.3, nine places lower than their home mark, and their three-point shooting drops from 36.7% at home to just 33.9% away. Without Mirotic providing reliable scoring off the bench, their offensive ceiling on the road is even lower.

Fourth, the head-to-head history shows these teams know each other extremely well, and familiarity in a playoff series usually produces tighter, lower-scoring games where both coaches make strong tactical adjustments. The under 173.5 is the smart pick here.

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