Lithuania vs Greece Prediction and Betting Tips – EuroBasket 2025

This article provides a preview of the Lithuania vs Greece EuroBasket 2025 Quarterfinal matchup, including our top value betting prediction. The game tips off on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, at 20:00 CET, with Greece looking to lean on Giannis Antetokounmpo, while Lithuania will try to pull off another upset with their trademark grit.

🏀 Prediction: Lithuania +7 @1.85

Despite missing stars like Domantas Sabonis and losing point guard Rokas Jokubaitis mid-tournament, Lithuania has fought their way to the quarterfinals with five wins and only one loss. In the Round of 16, they dominated Latvia 88-72 in a Baltic derby.

Arnas Velicka shone in Jokubaitis’s absence with 21 points and five assists, while Azuolas Tubelis and Deividas Sirvydis each scored 18 points. Jonas Valančiūnas played less than 10 minutes due to tactical reasons, but Lithuania’s depth and team balance carried them through. Their aggressive, physical style remains their identity, frustrating opponents with tough defense.

Greece, meanwhile, has been inconsistent but dangerous. With Giannis Antetokounmpo, they can beat anyone, as shown by their group-stage win over Spain and their convincing 81-69 victory against Israel in the Round of 16.

Giannis dominated early, powering fast breaks and scoring at will in the paint. However, outside shooting remains a weakness – Greece went 4/25 from deep against Israel, despite a solid overall tournament percentage. Kostas Sloukas’s improvement has been a positive sign, but the team still leans heavily on Giannis to create scoring opportunities.

Lithuania’s physical defense is well-suited to slowing down Greece’s transition game. By limiting fast breaks and forcing Greece to rely on jump shots, they can keep this game tight. With Velicka stepping up as playmaker and multiple players contributing offensively, Lithuania has the balance and fight to stay within reach.

Lithuania +7 at 1.85 offers great value, as their toughness and disciplined defense could turn this quarterfinal into a close contest decided in the final minutes. For a full overview of the EuroBasket playoff teams and main contenders, check out our piece: Who’s Going to Win EuroBasket?

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❗This prediction is for guidance only. We are not responsible for your bets.