フェネルバフチェ対ザルギリス ユーロリーグ・プレーオフ予想 - 4月28日

Fenerbahce spent most of the Euroleague season at the top of the standings, looking every bit like the reigning champions they are. Then came the collapse. Seven losses in eight games sent them tumbling from first to third, and they only locked up home-court advantage with a nervy win over the weakest team in the league. Zalgiris, meanwhile, won six of their last seven games to finish fifth, already beat Fenerbahce twice this season, and arrive in Istanbul with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

🏀 Fenerbahce vs Zalgiris EuroLeague Playoffs Prediction: Zalgiris +7 @1.76

Fenerbahce own the best defense in the entire Euroleague, holding opponents to just 80.6 points per game, first in the competition. Their defensive rating of 111 is unmatched, and opponents shoot just 32.1% from three against them, also first in the league. When this defense is locked in, they are almost impossible to beat at home, where they allowed only 75.6 points per game during the regular season. The problem is their offense, which ranked just fifteenth in offensive rating all season, generating modest playmaking numbers and struggling to score inside consistently.

Coach Sarunas Jasikevicius is one of the sharpest tactical minds in European basketball, and he knows how to prepare for playoff series better than almost anyone. Talen Horton-Tucker, Wade Baldwin, Devon Hall, and Nicolo Melli give Fenerbahce the experience and individual quality to win any game in Europe. But confidence is fragile right now, and even in their final tune-up win over Asvel, they blew a 26-point lead and nearly lost before surviving 81 to 76. The reigning champions will be highly motivated here, especially after losing to Zalgiris twice in the regular season, but the mental scars from a rough final stretch are real.

Zalgiris have been one of the best stories in European basketball this season. Coach Tomas Masiulis, a longtime associate of Jasikevicius, guided a team most people expected nothing from all the way to a fifth-place finish. Their offensive rating of 120.7 ranks third in the entire Euroleague, and away from Kaunas they are even sharper, posting the best road offensive rating in the competition at 123.5. They shoot 39.9% from three overall, the best three-point percentage in the league, and they protect the ball extremely well, averaging just 11.6 turnovers per game, fourth best in Europe.

Sylvain Francisco and Nigel Williams-Goss run one of the most efficient offenses in the competition, while Moses Wright has been one of the most improved players in the Euroleague this season. What makes Zalgiris especially interesting in this matchup is that Masiulis knows Jasikevicius and his system inside out. That familiarity could be the difference in a tight game. Zalgiris already beat Fenerbahce 84 to 81 in Kaunas and 92 to 82 on the road this season, proving this is not a team that fears the reigning champions.

There are several strong reasons to back Zalgiris to keep this game within seven points. First, they already beat Fenerbahce twice this season, including a 10-point road win, so covering a seven-point spread on the road is well within their range. Second, Zalgiris carry the third-best offensive rating in the Euroleague at 120.7, and their road offense is actually the best in the entire competition at 123.5, meaning they will score in Istanbul regardless of how good Fenerbahce’s defense is.

Third, Fenerbahce’s offense ranked only fifteenth in offensive rating during the regular season, and their home game production has been inconsistent, generating very few two-point attempts and cooling off badly from three at home. Fourth, all the pressure in this series sits on Fenerbahce. Reaching the quarterfinals is already a major achievement for ザルギリス, while anything less than a dominant performance from the reigning champions will be seen as a failure. That pressure affects teams, especially ones that just went through the kind of slump Fenerbahce experienced.

Fifth, Masiulis has been the main assistant coach for Jasikevicius and knows every move his former mentor will make as he has been the student and co-creator of Jasikevicius’s system for years. With Zalgiris controlling the possession battle, shooting the ball well from deep, and protecting the ball better than almost anyone in Europe, they have all the tools to stay competitive in this game. Backing Zalgiris to cover the spread against a struggling champion with confidence issues at home is probably the smartest bet of this quarterfinal round.

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