Italy Men’s Hockey: 2026 Olympics’ Biggest Underdog?

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways
• How Italy Qualified for the 2026 Olympic Hockey Tournament
• Group B Overview and Tournament Structure
• Italy’s Olympic Roster and Key Names to Watch
• Why Italy Is the 2026 Olympics Biggest Underdog
• Italy vs. Sweden Betting Odds and What They Tell You
• Can Italy Pull Off a Surprise in Milan?
• FAQ About Italy Men’s Hockey at the 2026 Olympics

• Italy is the 2026 Olympics’ biggest underdog, returning since 2006.
• Qualified as a host, but lacks NHL talent.
• Goaltender Damian Clara, an Anaheim Ducks prospect, is key.
• Goal: stay competitive, avoid heavy losses.
• Best-ever finish: 7th in 1956; no Olympic medals.

Italy will compete in the 2026 Olympic hockey tournament as the host nation, which gave the team an automatic place in the field. While this ensures home-ice support, it also leaves open questions about how prepared Italy is to face the world’s top teams.

Italy received an automatic berth into the 12-team tournament as the host of the 2026 Winter Games. This is a long-standing Olympic tradition, and it gave the federation time to plan their roster strategy well in advance.

However, we think this automatic spot also creates a challenge. Without the pressure of qualifying matches, the team missed out on competitive reps against top-tier opponents. The Italians spent most recent years competing in Division I Group A, a step below the elite level.

Italy earned promotion back to the top IIHF World Championship division in May 2025 after finishing second in Division I Group A in Sfântu Gheorghe, Romania. They went 3–1–1 in that tournament, securing their return to the elite level for the first time since 2018.

That promotion is a good sign. It tells you the team is on an upward trajectory, even if the gap between Division I hockey and facing NHL all-stars is enormous.

Italy has been drawn into one of the toughest groups, and we share the full breakdown.

Team	IIHF Ranking	Key NHL Stars	Gold Medal Odds
Finland	3rd	Rantanen, Aho, Saros	+1000
Sweden	5th	Nylander, Hedman, Dahlin	+500
Slovakia	10th	Nemec, Fehervary	+80000
Italy (Host)	20th	None (Clara – AHL)	+100000

The talent gap is staggering. Finland and Sweden are legitimate gold medal contenders, and even Slovakia carries several NHL regulars. Italy is the only team in the entire tournament without a single current or former NHL veteran on the ice.

All Group B games will be played at the Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena and the Rho Ice Hockey Arena in Milan.

• February 11 – Slovakia vs. Finland and Sweden vs. Italy
• February 13 – Finland vs. Sweden and Italy vs. Slovakia
• February 15 – Sweden vs. Slovakia and Finland vs. Italy

The Italian roster is built around European league talent, and there are the names you should know.

The most intriguing name is Damian Clara, a 20-year-old goaltender from Brunico drafted by the Anaheim Ducks in the second round of the 2023 NHL Draft. He has been developing in the Swedish Hockey League with Brynäs IF, which tells you the kid is getting solid competition at a respectable level.

We noticed that Clara also spent time with the Ducks’ AHL affiliate in San Diego earlier this season. If Italy is going to pull off any surprise at all, Clara will need to be sensational between the pipes. In a sport where a hot goaltender can steal games, he is Italy’s X-factor.

The forward group features ICE Hockey League regulars and Swiss National League veterans like Diego Kostner, Nick Saracino, and Alexander Petan. On the blue line, athletes like Thomas Larkin and Phil Pietroniro bring experience from German and Czech leagues.

• Most athletes play in the ICE Hockey League or the Swiss National League
• Several have dual Italian-Canadian citizenship, a long tradition in Italian hockey
• The federation chose not to pursue heritage-eligible NHL stars, opting for genuine team chemistry

That last point is worth noting. Italy could have tried to recruit NHL-eligible athletes of Italian descent, but they went with a group that has played together and knows each other’s tendencies. We think that is a smart move for chemistry, even if it means a lower skill ceiling.

Several factors combine to make Italy’s underdog status truly historic.

Canada rolls out McDavid, Crosby, and MacKinnon. The USA counters with Matthews, Hughes, and Hellebuyck. Sweden has Nylander, Hedman, and Dahlin. Italy has none of that.

The skill and speed gap between an NHL superstar and a solid European league forward is massive, and you will see it on every shift. When you consider that the ranking gap between Italy (20th) and their Group B opponents ranges from 3 to 10 places, it becomes clear just how steep the mountain is.

Italy last played Olympic hockey in 2006 at Turin, finishing 11th out of 12 teams. Before that, at the 1998 Nagano Olympics, they placed 12th. Their best result ever was 7th place at the 1956 Cortina Games, when the host nation played in front of a passionate home crowd.

Most of the current roster members have never experienced anything close to this level of competition. That kind of inexperience matters in high-pressure situations.

• 1948 – A 31–1 loss to the USA, the biggest defeat in Italian Olympic hockey history
• 1956 – Best-ever finish of 7th place on home ice in Cortina
• 2006 – 11th-place finish at Turin, their last Olympic appearance

The opening game gives us one of the most lopsided matchups on paper.

Italy’s first game comes against Sweden on February 11, and the odds reflect just how steep the challenge is. Top bookmakers have set the price for an Italian victory at around @50, which translates to an implied probability of just 2%. In practical terms, bookmakers believe Italy has about a 1-in-50 chance of winning this game.

Sweden, meanwhile, is priced as the tournament’s third favorite behind Canada and the USA. The Swedes bring a roster loaded with NHL firepower, including names like William Nylander, Victor Hedman, and Filip Forsberg.

Factor	Sweden	Italy
IIHF Ranking	5th	20th
NHL Athletes on Roster	20+	0
Gold Medal Odds	+500	+100000
Matchday Win Odds	Heavy Favorite	@50 (~2%)

There is a small case to be made if you believe in home-ice advantage and an exceptional performance from the goaltender. Clara would likely need the game of his life, while Sweden would have to start slowly on unfamiliar Olympic ice. Upsets do happen in hockey, but the margin here is razor thin, so this should be viewed only as a fun longshot, not a serious bet.

Every underdog needs a path to the upset. Here is what would need to go right.

Playing in front of a passionate Milan crowd could be a real factor. The Santagiulia Arena will be full of fans who may not follow hockey all year but will be loud and fully behind the Azzurri, and in a momentum-driven sport, that atmosphere can unsettle even top teams.

If that energy is paired with a standout performance from Clara, Italy could remain competitive longer than expected. Home-ice advantage has influenced international hockey games before, and this would not be the first time it mattered.

Let us be honest. Italy is very likely to finish last in Group B. The realistic goal is not to win games, but to stay competitive, avoid heavy losses, and give the home crowd moments worth celebrating.

Keeping a game within a two- or three-goal margin would already be seen as a strong result. Sometimes, betting on the underdog is about celebrating the small victories and ensuring the team competes with pride on the world stage.

Here are the most common questions about Italy’s Olympic hockey team.

They qualified automatically as the host nation of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics.

No. Goaltender Damian Clara, an Anaheim Ducks prospect, is the only member signed to an NHL organization.

Bookmakers price an Italian win at approximately @50, implying around a 2% chance.

At the 2006 Turin Games, where they finished 11th out of 12 teams.

7th place at the 1956 Winter Olympics in Cortina d’Ampezzo. They have never won an Olympic medal in ice hockey.