Five Reasons Horses Have a Better Chance than Recent Form Suggests

When you are looking at a horse race, sometimes the winner will come from nowhere, and you will be left scratching your head. Often, these horses win at high prices, and they appear to have improved a lot from their recent runs. However, there is usually more to this than meets the eye, and if you are prepared to dig into the form book a little deeper, you will often find something to make the horse of interest.

The key to finding these horses is thinking outside of the box and looking for reasons to back a runner that may stretch back a year or further. If you can do this, then you will open up to supporting horses that look to be out of form, in the hope that the horse can take advantage of whatever it is as the reason you have found to back them.

When looking at recent form, one of the first things you should do is check what courses the horse has been running at, and how they compare to the course it will be running in next. For example, if a horse has been running right-handed and struggling, and now goes left-handed and back further in the form book, you can find a win on a left-handed track for the horse.

This could be a reason you would back the horse. Going back left-handed could be a huge benefit to that horse, and be the difference maker, and what gives the horse a chance.

The other thing to look at with courses is whether or not a horse has previous course form. Some horses will be course specialists and perform much better at one particular course than they do at another.

For example, if the race is at Ascot, the horse could have won there a couple of times last year but then disappointed when running elsewhere this season. The return to Ascot could be what sparks life back into the horse and could be the difference between winning and losing.

This kind of deeper analysis can also help you find extra value at top betting sites, where the odds may not fully reflect a horse’s true chance.

Some horses will be able to run ok on any ground, some will have a slight preference for one type of ground, and others will have a significant preference for a kind of ground. Those in the latter category can often bounce back and win when the ground changes.

For example, a horse has run well on soft ground at the start of the season, then struggled on fast ground during the summer. When the ground goes soft again towards the end of the season, this horse is going to have a much better chance of winning than recent form would suggest, because of the ground.

When you are looking at horses and the ground they are running on, always look over a longer period, preferably over a year or two. When you do this, you should be able to see a pattern emerge showing you which ground the horse handles, and which ground they struggle on. If you can work this out, then you are likely to be one step ahead of many punters who are not looking further back than the last couple of runs – this is one of the simplest horse racing tips you can use.

Just like humans, if a horse is in the same place, with the same routine every single day, they will get lazy. Horses that are lazy become very hard to win with, and their form shows that. However, if a horse changes yards, either because their owner wants to or because it has been sold, then it can often be worth following. Despite the form book saying they have little chance of winning, it is likely they are going to be much sharper for the change of scenery.

Looking back a couple of years, you will probably see that the horse was winning off much better handicap marks, which makes the horse well handicapped and potentially ready to strike.

Some horses will perform well all year round, while others will thrive during a specific period. This may be at the start of the season, the end, or in the middle. These horses can often look like they don’t have a chance to win, before suddenly bursting into life when they are at their happiest. Look back over the last couple of years and look out for horses who do this.

For example, a horse may come to life in the autumn, so it will run poorly through the summer before taking advantage of a low handicap mark when the autumn arrives. These horses may not like the weather too hot and prefer to run in colder conditions, something they will get in the autumn.

Horses and trainers will go through good and bad spells, but by looking deeper into the form book, you will be able to pick out horses that come to life at a certain time of the year. These horses often pop up at an excellent price, and if you are one step ahead, you can be on them.

We all know that applying headgear to a horse can have a massive impact on how they runs, but look out for patterns that you can follow. For example, if a horse runs in blinkers and then returns for its first run of the season without them, that can often be a sign that the horse is running for fitness and not yet ready to win. You can disregard that run from the form book, and it is likely to make the horse a higher price next time it runs.

Only look at the runs where headgear is applied, and you may get a different picture when reading through the form book ahead of a race you are studying. If headgear is required for the horse to win, don’t bet when it is taken off.

A racecourse can boost a horse’s chance if it returns to a track layout (e.g., left-handed) or a specific course where it has previously run much better than elsewhere.

Because many horses strongly prefer certain ground, they improve sharply when conditions suit them again.

Because some horses feel happier and run better in certain seasonal conditions (for example, cooler autumn weather), they naturally hit top form at that time each year.

Headgear can transform a horse’s form because some horses only run to their best when it’s applied, while runs without it may simply be for fitness and can be ignored.

Yes. A new stable can freshen up a lazy, out-of-form horse, sharpen it up with a different routine, and let it exploit a lenient handicap mark based on its older, better form.