ザルギリス対パリ バスケットボール ユーロリーグ予想 - 4月17日

Friday night in Kaunas brings one of the most important games of the entire Euroleague final round. Zalgiris host Paris Basketball in a match where the home side has everything on the line and the visitors have nothing left to play for in the standings. Zalgiris sit sixth at 22-15 and a win guarantees them direct playoff qualification and a top-six finish, which would be a remarkable achievement for a team that almost nobody had in their playoff predictions before the season started.

Paris arrive already eliminated from play-in contention, but they have shown in recent weeks that they will compete hard in every game and showed beating Maccabi at home 113:80. With Zalgiris controlling their own destiny, this is as close to a must-win home game as it gets.

🏀 Zalgiris vs Paris Euroleague Prediction: Under 178.5 Points @1.86

Zalgiris have been one of the best stories of the Euroleague season and their recent form has been outstanding. Over the last month they played 11 games across all competitions and won 10 of them, with their only loss coming against Dubai in a game where they gave up a massive lead by losing the final quarter 38-12.

They bounced back immediately, beating Partizan in Belgrade just days later in a game they controlled from start to finish.

Sylvain Francisco and Nigel Williams-Goss have been the engine of this team all season, with Francisco scoring 18 points against Partizan to redeem himself after the Dubai loss. Center Moses Wright has also been crucial, delivering 11 rebounds and four assists against Partizan, a new personal Euroleague record.

Zalgiris can secure a top-six finish and direct playoff qualification with a win on Friday, which means this team will come out with maximum intensity from the opening tip.

The home defensive numbers for Zalgiris are genuinely elite. They post a home defensive rating of 107.3, second best in the entire Euroleague, and allow opponents just 77.9 points per game at home, also second in the competition.

They limit opponents to just 22.9 three-point attempts per home game, first in the entire Euroleague, and hold opponents to 33.5% from three at home, second best in the competition. Zalgiris defend the arc better than almost anyone in the league, and that is going to be a massive problem for a Paris team that lives and dies by the three-point shot.

Paris have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last month, winning six of their last seven games across all competitions and three of their last four in the Euroleague. Their most recent result was a convincing win over Maccabi Tel Aviv where they scored 41 points in the first quarter alone and shot close to 50% from three.

New head coach Julius Thomas, who replaced Francesco Tabellini a few weeks ago, has kept the team playing in their recognizable fast-paced style.

The challenge for Paris on Friday is that their entire offensive identity is built around pace and three-point volume. They lead the entire Euroleague in possessions per game away from home at 78.9, first in the competition, and take 33.6 three-point attempts per road game, also first.

But Zalgiris at home are specifically built to slow teams down and take away exactly those shots.

Paris away from home post an offensive rating of just 113.3, 14th in the Euroleague, and they struggle to generate efficient offense when teams take away their preferred pace and shot selection. Against a Zalgiris defense that limits opponent three-point attempts better than anyone in the league, Paris will find it very hard to replicate what they did against Maccabi.

The under here is backed by a structural mismatch that plays out almost every time Zalgiris host a fast-paced team at home. Zalgiris play 72.6 possessions per home game, 15th in the Euroleague, while Paris want to push the pace to 78.9 possessions on the road, first in the competition.

That tempo battle is the heart of this bet. Zalgiris have shown all season they can impose their slow, controlled style even against much stronger teams, and in a game this important they will be locked in defensively from the first minute.

ザルギリス also score just 85.7 points per game at home, 13th in the Euroleague, which tells you this will not be a high-scoring night on their end either. Their home offensive rating of 118.1 ranks 12th, meaning they are a controlled, efficient team at home rather than a prolific scoring one.

Paris away from home concede 30.8 three-point attempts per road game, the most in the entire Euroleague away from home, which means opponents can get hot from deep against them. Zalgiris do not take many threes at home though, averaging just 24.8 attempts per game, 14th in the league, so that Paris road defensive weakness does not come into play here.

With Zalgiris controlling the pace, shutting down Paris from three, and both teams scoring under their averages in a grinding half-court battle, under 178.5 at 1.86 is the right call on Friday night.

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