ドバイ対バレンシア ユーロリーグ予想 - 4月17日

The EuroLeague regular season wraps up on Friday as Dubai host Valencia in Zenica in a game with serious stakes for both sides. Dubai sit 11th with a 19-18 record and their play-in hopes are still alive, but only just. They need to beat Valencia and hope Barcelona lose to Bayern to secure that final top-ten spot.

Valencia arrive in Bosnia with second place already locked up at 24-13, but a win combined with an Olympiacos defeat would hand them first place in the entire EuroLeague, a remarkable achievement for a team almost nobody tipped for the playoffs before the season started.

🏀 Dubai vs Valencia Euroleague Prediction: Jean Montero Over 4.5 Assists @1.86

Valencia have been one of the best stories in the EuroLeague this season. Pedro Martínez’s side won both games in the last double round against Milano and Panathinaikos to seal second place and home-court advantage in the playoffs. Jean Montero has been their standout performer, dropping 25 points against Milano and 22 against Panathinaikos.

They lead the EuroLeague in away scoring with 91.9 points per game and rank third in road offensive rating at 119.6. Valencia do have something to play for here, since one more win plus an Olympiacos slip would give them the top seed in the competition.

The problem on Friday is Valencia’s road defensive profile. Away from home their defensive rating climbs to 118.7, placing them 11th in the competition. They allow 91.3 points per game as visitors and send opponents to the free-throw line at a rate of 21.8 attempts per game on the road.

They also give up 20.7 assisted baskets per game away from home, 17th in the league, meaning teams move the ball freely against them on the road. To make things worse, Valencia convert just 74.6% of their free throws away from home, the worst percentage in the entire EuroLeague, which becomes a serious problem against a Dubai side that draws fouls at the highest rate in the competition at home.

Dubai’s season has been a rollercoaster and the last two weeks captured that perfectly. They fired coach Jurica Golemac after a shocking 85-69 home loss to the already-eliminated Anadolu Efes, a game in which they shot 34% from the field and 19% from three while their opponents outpassed them by nine assists.

But the team responded well, beating Buducnost 89-78 in the ABA League over the weekend with strong performances from Mfiondu Kabengele and Dzanan Musa. A team that answers a coaching change with a win is a team that has something to prove.

The home numbers show exactly why Dubai are dangerous in this situation. They rank fourth in the EuroLeague in home offensive rating at 124.2 and average 93 points per game on their own court, second best in the competition. They lead the entire EuroLeague in home two-point attempts with 42 per game and draw 25.7 free-throw attempts per game at home, also first in the league.

They also protect the ball better than anyone at home, turning it over on just 11% of possessions, first in the entire competition. They also hold opponents to 51.1% on two-pointers at home, the third best mark in the EuroLeague.

Montero is Valencia’s engine and the numbers back that up clearly. He averages 4.6 assists per game this season across 31 games, which already puts him right on the edge of this line, and his assist rate of 16% means roughly one in every six バレンシア offensive possessions ends with a Montero dime.

His usage rate sits at 28%, the highest on the team, which means the ball is in his hands constantly and he has every opportunity to create for others. That high usage combined with a respectable 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio tells you he handles pressure well and keeps making smart decisions even in difficult moments.

The matchup here works in his favor. Dubai under their new setup will be motivated and physical, which tends to push games into half-court territory where a creative point guard with Montero’s vision thrives. When offenses slow down and space tightens, the playmaker who can break defenses with the pass becomes even more valuable than the one hunting his own shot.

Valencia also have a real incentive to push for first place on Friday, which means they will be playing with intent and structure rather than coasting. A motivated Valencia offense running through their best playmaker in a game that matters is the ideal setup for Montero to surpass that 4.5 assist mark. At 1.86, this line offers genuine value on a player who is already averaging above it on the season.

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