Champions League Underdogs: Biggest Upsets and Betting Lessons

For those needing a reminder of the unpredictability of the UEFA Champions League, Bodo/Glimt offers a perfect example. The Norwegian team entered as major underdogs, but under the guidance of manager Kjetil Knutsen, they’ve played fearlessly.

In 2026, Bodo/Glimt stunned many by defeating top teams like last year’s finalists, Inter Milan, La Liga’s Atletico Madrid, and the Premier League’s Manchester City. This has earned them a spot in the Last 16, where they’ll face Sporting in a tie that many see as winnable.

How far can Bodo/Glimt go? Can they defeat Sporting and keep their dream alive? Fans are eagerly waiting to see. Their impressive run has inspired sports betting writer Frank Monkhouse to revisit some of the most unforgettable Champions League upsets.

• Underdogs can win, as Porto proved.
• Focus on form, not reputation.
• Bet in different markets, including outright, stage, and player bets.
• Early bets offer better odds, so bet early for higher returns.
• Underdogs always have a chance; surprises happen every year.

Here are five of my favorite Champions League upsets:

When the European Cup came to London.

Chelsea were outsiders, but they made a stunning run to lift the trophy. They were underdogs in both the semi-final and the final, defeating Barcelona and securing their place in history.

When great coaching meets strong ambition, anything is possible.

Jose Mourinho’s Porto began the 2003/04 Champions League campaign with long odds in the betting markets. Did that stop them? Not at all.

Porto reminded everyone that, despite big budgets and star players, football is always unpredictable.

Monaco were down 5-3 after the first leg in England. It seemed over, right? Not at all.

Monaco showed determination and turned things around, winning 3-1 at home and advancing on away goals. Kylian Mbappe played a key role, scoring twice over both legs.

Ajax didn’t reach the final, but their journey to the semi-finals was remarkable.

The Dutch club shocked the football world by beating Juventus and Real Madrid at huge odds. Their success was built on a young, dynamic team that pressured opponents and beat possession-based sides.

APOEL FC proved that budget isn’t everything. They made it out of the group stage and reached the quarter-finals.

A favorable draw helped them build momentum, as they displayed a solid defense and a knack for frustrating bigger teams. APOEL serves as a reminder that form is more important than squad value in football.

The examples above highlight the importance of an ambitious young manager achieving great results. They also show that betting odds are simply the opinions of a trading team working in an office. Being an underdog doesn’t always mean the outcome is certain.

Here are five ways to spot value when betting on the Champions League:

1. Forget reputation and focus on current form and stats, including xG.
2. Stay updated on domestic performances, rest periods, and travel schedules.
3. Take into account the strength of home-field advantage.
4. The earlier you place a football bet, the better the odds.
5. Explore all markets, including elimination stages and each-way options.

When using your favorite betting app, you’ll find plenty of betting options for the Champions League. You can choose to bet on the overall winner or focus on upcoming matches, such as the Last 16.

To begin, the most straightforward way to back an underdog with high odds is to pick them to win the trophy. If they take the title, you’ll profit, but if they don’t, you lose your stake.

Another interesting market is the elimination stage, where you predict when a team will be knocked out. Will they make it to the quarter-finals, or can they reach the semi-finals? A great opportunity for football prediction enthusiasts.

You can also bet on individual players. The top goalscorer market is popular, where you predict which player will win the Golden Boot.

For match-specific bets, you can back an underdog with a handicap, giving them a one or two-goal head start. Another option is betting on them to win the tie, meaning they need to lead after two legs. If the underdog is likely to be competitive, betting on both teams to score can be a good choice. For the best experience, make sure to check out the top betting sites, where you’ll find competitive odds and a wide range of betting options.

We round things off with a look at the UEFA Champions League market heading into the Last 16.

• Arsenal @ 11/4
• Bayern Munich @ 11/2
• Barcelona @ 7/1
• Man City @ 8/1
• PSG @ 10/1
• Liverpool @ 10/1
• Real Madrid @ 12/1
• Chelsea @ 25/1
• Atletico Madrid @ 25/1
• Newcastle @ 25/1

The UEFA Champions League is full of surprises, with underdogs often defying expectations. Teams like Porto, Chelsea, and Ajax have shown that with the right mix of ambition and form, anything is possible, regardless of betting odds. For those looking to back the underdogs, focusing on current form, player performance, and match markets can provide value. While favorites like Arsenal and Bayern Munich lead the odds, there’s always room for another shocking upset.